Renovación legislativa en América Latina: construcción de una nueva base de datos y análisis de su evolución temporal
El artículo examina los patrones de renovación legislativa en América Latina. Este contribuye con la introducción de un extensa base de datos originales sobre las tasas de renovación en 204 elecciones entre 1985 y 2023, basado en listas codificadas manualmente de todas y todos los legisladores latinoamericanos elegidos desde 1985; describe los patrones nacionales y temporales de renovación en América Latina, y examina empíricamente la relación entre las tasas de renovación y las reglas institucionales temporales diseñadas para regular los horizontes temporales de las y los legisladores. Los datos revelan que las tasas de renovación en América Latina son extremadamente altas en promedio (alrededor del 70 %) en comparación con las democracias de otras regiones, aunque con una variación significativa. Los determinantes institucionales que rigen los horizontes temporales de los políticos están asociados con la renovación. Los límites de mandato, la presencia de elecciones escalonadas y la duración del mandato se asocian positivamente con tasas de renovación elevadas.
Detalles del artículo

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
Citas
Agomor, Kingsley S., Banini, Daniel Kofi, y Langnel, Zechariah. (2023). Legislative Electoral Incumbent Defeats: Cues from Ghana. The Journal of Legislative Studies, 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/13572334.2023.2226416
Allen, Geoff, y Stoll, Heather. (2023). A number most convenient? The representational consequences of legislative size. Electoral Studies, (82), 102594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102594
Altman, David, y Chasquetti, Daniel. (2005). Re-election and political career paths in the Uruguayan Congress, 1985–99. The Journal of Legislative Studies, 11(2), 235-253. https://doi.org/10.1080/13572330500158656
Anria, Santiago. (2018). When Movements Become Parties: The Bolivian MAS in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108551755
Best, Heinrich, Hausmann, Christopher, y Schmitt, Karl. (2000). Challenges, Failures and final success: The winding path of German Parliamentary Leadership groups toward a structurally integrated elite 1848–1999. En Best, Heinrich y Cotta, Maurizio (Eds.), Parliamentary Representatives in Europe, 1848–2000: Legislative Recruitment and Careers in Eleven European Countries. Oxford University Press, 138-195. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198297932.003.0005
Botero, Felipe y Rennó, Lucio R. (2007). Career Choice and Legislative Reelection: Evidence from Brazil and Colombia. Brazilian Political Science Review, 1(1), 102-124. https://doi.org/10.1590/1981-3825200700010005
Brown Araúz, Harry y Acosta, Marina. (2022). La comunidad virtual y su actor político: el hashtag #NoALaReeleccion en las elecciones panameñas de 2019. Sociología y Tecnociencia, 12(1), 187-215. https://doi.org/10.24197/st.1.2022.187-215
Buben, Radek y Kouba, Karel. (2020). Nicaragua in 2019: The Surprising Resilience of Authoritarianism in the Aftermath of Regime Crisis. Revista de Ciencia Política, 40(2), 431-455. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2020005000114
Buehler, Michael y Nataatmadja, Ronnie. (2019). A research agenda for studying legislative incumbent turnover in new democracies, using indonesia as a case study. South East Asia Research, 27(3), 203-224. https://doi.org/10.1080/0967828X.2019.1642027
Bunker, Kenneth y Navia, Patricio. (2015). Incumbency advantage and tenure length in the chilean chamber of deputies, 1989–2009. Revista de Ciencia Política, 35(2), 251-71. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2015000200001
Carreras, Miguel. (2012). The rise of outsiders in latin america, 1980–2010: an institutionalist perspective. Comparative Political Studies, 45(12), 1451-1482. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414012445753
Castro, Monica Mata Machado de y Nunes, Felipe. (2014). Candidatos corruptos são punidos? Accountability na eleição brasileira de 2006. Opinião Pública, 20(1), 26-48. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762014000100002
Centellas, Miguel. (2013). Legislative Turnover and Institutional Reforms: Evidence from the Bolivian Case [Ponencia]. 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, 27 de agosto - 1 de septiembre de 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/2.1.3901.4082
Chasquetti, Daniel. (2000). La renovación del parlamento: 1985–1999. Documentos de Trabajo FCS-ICP 22. Anthropos Editorial. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/34881
Chasquetti, Daniel. (2015). Retornar a las reglas. El efecto de las instituciones: partidos y parlamentos en Brasil, Chile y Uruguay, en Torcal, Mariano (Ed.), Sistemas de partidos en América Latina: causas y consecuencias de su equilibrio inestable. Anthropos Editorial, 89-102. https://doi.org/10.18504/pl2550-019-2017
Corrales, Javier. (2016). Can Anyone Stop the President? Power Asymmetries and Term Limits in Latin America, 1984–2016. Latin American Politics and Society, 58(2), 3-25. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2016.00308.x
Crowther, William E., y Matonyte, Irmina. (2007). Parliamentary Elites as a Democratic Thermometer: Estonia, Lithuania and Moldova Compared. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 40(3), 281-299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2007.06.006
Dietz, Henry A., y Myers, David J. (2007). From Thaw to Deluge: Party System Collapse in Venezuela and Peru. Latin American Politics and Society, 49(2), 59-86. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2007.tb00407.x
Dinerstein, Ana C. (2003). ¡Que se vayan todos! Popular Insurrection and the Asambleas barriales in Argentina. Bulletin of Latin American Research, 22(2), 187-200. https://doi.org/10.1111/1470-9856.00072
Duque Daza, Javier. (2011). El Congreso de la República en Colombia: estabilidad y renovación en las elecciones de 2010. Colombia Internacional, (74), 119-151. https://journals.openedition.org/colombiaint/15860
Fashagba, Joseph Yinka, y Nwankwor, Chiedo. (2020). Legislative Turnover in a New Democracy: An Insight from The Nigerian National Assembly (1999–2019). Studia Politica. Romanian Political Science Review, 20(4), 549-568. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2024.56
François, Abel, y Grossman, Emiliano. (2015). How to Define Legislative Turnover? The Incidence of Measures of Renewal and Levels of Analysis. The Journal of Legislative Studies, 21(4), 457-475. https://doi.org/10.1080/13572334.2015.1082311
Frederick, Brian. (2010). Congressional Representation and Constituents: The Case for Increasing the U.S. House of Representatives. Routledge.
Gamboa, Ricardo, y Morales, Mauricio. (2016). Chile’s 2015 Electoral Reform: Changing the Rules of the Game. Latin American Politics and Society, 58(4), 126-144. https://doi.org/10.1111/laps.12005
Gandhi, Jennifer, y Lust-Okar, Ellen. (2009). Elections under Authoritarianism. Annual Review of Political Science, 12, 403-22. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060106.095434
Golosov, Grigorii V. (2017). Legislative turnover and executive control in Russia’s Regions 2003–2014. Europe-Asia Studies, 69(4), 553-570. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2017.1337871
González-Bustamante, Bastián y Cisternas, Carla. (2016). Élites políticas en el poder legislativo chileno: la Cámara de Diputados 1990–2014. Política. Revista de Ciencia Política, 54(1), 19-52. https://doi.org/10.5354/0719-5338.2016.42691
Gouglas, Athanassios, Maddens, Bart, y Brans, Marleen. (2018). Determinants of Legislative Turnover in Western Europe, 1945–2015. European Journal of Political Research, 57(3), 637-661. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12246
Heinsohn, Till. (2014). Institutional Determinants of Legislative Turnover in the German State Parliaments: 1947–2012. The Journal of Legislative Studies, 20(4), 473-494. https://doi.org/10.1080/13572334.2014.939433
Heinsohn, Till, y Freitag, Markus. (2012). Institutional foundations of legislative turnover: a comparative analysis of the swiss cantons. Swiss Political Science Review, 18(3), 352-370. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1662-6370.2012.02078.x
Jones, Mark P. (2011). Weakly institutionalized party systems and presidential democracy: Evidence from Guatemala. International Area Studies Review, 14(4), 3-30. https://doi.org/10.1177/223386591101400402
Kim, Junseok, y Park, Kyungmee. (2017). Prior Margins of Victory and Legislative Careers: Competing Risks Regression Analysis in South Korean National Assembly, 1988–2015. Korea Observer, 48(4), 669-699. https://scholar.kyobobook.co.kr/article/detail/4010026082605
Kjaer, Ulrik y Elklit, Jørgen. (2014). The Impact of Assembly Size on Representativeness. The Journal of Legislative Studies, 20(2), 156-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/13572334.2013.846550
Kouba, Karel, y Došek, Tomáš. (2023). Democratizing Urban Governance through Mayoral Term Limits: Quasi-experimental Evidence from a Reform in Chilean Municipalities. Cities, (140), 104446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2023.104446
Kouba, Karel, y Weiss, Michael. (2025). Replication Data for: Legislative turnover in Latin America: introducing a new dataset and analyzing its temporal dynamics, Harvard Dataverse, V1. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/N2GX9W
Kroeger, Mary A. (2022). Bureaucrats as Lawmakers. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 47(1), 257-289. https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12423
Krupnikov, Yanna, y Shipan, Charles R. (2020). Voter Uncertainty, Political Institutions, and Legislative Turnover. Political Science Research and Methods, 8(1), 14-29. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2018.32
Kuklys, Mindaugas. (2013). Legislative turnover in the baltics after 1990: Why is it so high and what are its implications? Baltic Journal of Political Science, 2, 29-48. https://doi.org/10.15388/BJPS.2013.2.2816
Levita, Gabriel, y Márquez Romo, Cristian. (2023). Assessing Congressional Institutionalization and Political Elites’ Renewal in Latin America Through Legislative Amateurism. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 15(3), 287-310. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X231212571
Levitsky, Steven (2018). Peru: The institutionalization of politics without parties, en Mainwaring, Scott (Ed.), Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse. Cambridge University Press, 326-356. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316798553.012
Linz, Juan J. (1998). Democracy’s time constraints. International Political Science Review, 19(1), 19-37. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1601292
Llanos, Mariana, y Nolte, Detlef. (2003). Bicameralism in the Americas: Around the Extremes of Symmetry and Incongruence. The Journal of Legislative Studies, 9(3), 54-86. https://doi.org/10.1080/1357233042000246864
Lucardi, Adrián, y Almaraz, María Gabriela. (2017). With a little help from the opposition? Relaxing term limits in the Argentine provinces, 1983–2017. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 9(3), 49-90. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802X1700900303
Lucardi, Adrián, y Micozzi, Juan Pablo. (2021). El efecto del calendario electoral en la autoselección de las cohortes legislativas y el comportamiento legislativo en Argentina, 1983–2007. Administración Pública y Sociedad (APyS), (11), 3-29. https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/APyS/article/view/33856
Lupu, Noam. (2014). Brand Dilution and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. World Politics, 66(4), 561-602. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887114000197
Madison, James. (2008 [1788]). The Federalist, 62. En Hamilton, Alexander, Madison, James y Jay, John (Eds.), The Federalist Papers. Oxford University Press, 303-8.
Mainwaring, Scott. (2018). Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316798553
Mainwaring, Scott y Scully, Timothy. (1995). Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America. Stanford University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/2082578
Manin, Bernard. (1997). The Principles of Representative Government. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511659935
Manow, Philip. (2007). Electoral Rules and Legislative Turnover: Evidence from Germany’s Mixed Electoral System. West European Politics, 30(1), 195-207. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402380601019852
Martí i Puig, Salvador. (2016). Nicaragua: desdemocratización y caudillismo. Revista de Ciencia Política Santiago, 36(1), 239-258. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2016000100011
Martínez, Christopher A. (2021). Presidential Instability in Latin America: Why Institutionalized Parties Matter. Government and Opposition, 56(4), 683-704. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2020.18
Matland, Richard E., y Studlar, Donley T. (2004). Determinants of Legislative Turnover: A Cross-National Analysis. British Journal of Political Science, 34(1), 87-108. https://doi.org/10.1017/S000712340300036X
Matthews, Donald R. (1984). Legislative Recruitment and Legislative Careers. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 9(4), 547-85.
McClintock, Cynthia (2018). Electoral Rules and Democracy in Latin America. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/lap.2019.31
McCrain, Joshua y O’Connell, Stephen D. (2023). Experience, Institutions, and Candidate Emergence: The Political Career Returns to State Legislative Service. Political Science Research and Methods, 11(4), 763-784. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.16
Moncrief, Gary F., Niemi, Richard G., y Powell, Lynda W. (2004). Time, term limits, and turnover: Trends in membership stability in US State Legislatures. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 29(3), 357-381. https://doi.org/10.3162/036298004X201212
Morgenstern, Scott. (2004). Patterns of Legislative Politics: Roll-Call Voting in Latin-America and the United States. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511510328
Mudde, Cas. (2019). Populism: An Ideational Approach, en Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal, Taggart, Paul, Ochoa Espejo, Paulina y Ostiguy, Pierre (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Populism. Oxford University Press, 27-47. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803560.013.1
Muyters, Gertjan, y Maddens, Bart. (2023). Explaining Candidate Turnover. Evidence from a Comparative Analysis in 10 European Established Democracies with a List-PR System. European Political Science Review, 15(3), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773922000601
Navia, Patricio D. (2000). Incumbency in the Chilean Parliament: Continuities and Change [Ponencia]. 2000 Meeting of the Latin American Studies Association, Miami, 16-18 de marzo de 2000.
Obando Camino, Iván Mauricio. (2017). Rotación y reelección de diputados bajo la Constitución de 1833. Atenea (Concepción), 516, 69-85. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-04622017000200069
Pachano, Simón. (2008). Ecuador: la provincialización de la representación, en Mainwaring, Scott, Bejarano, Ana María y Pizarro Leongómez, Eduardo (Eds.), La crisis de la representación democrática en los países andinos. Grupo Editorial Norma, 163-208.
Ricknell, Emma. (2023). Dynamic Rare Decisions: Gubernatorial Vetoes and the Death Penalty, 1999–2018. Journal of Legislative Studies, 29(1), 189-211. https://doi.org/10.1080/13572334.2021.1975422
Rogers, James R. (2002). Free Riding in State Legislatures. Public Choice, 113(1), 59-76.
Rosenthal, Alan. (1974). Turnover in State Legislatures. American Journal of Political Science, 18(3), 609-616. https://doi.org/10.2307/2110635
Samuels, David. (2000). Ambition and Competition: Explaining Legislative Turnover in Brazil. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 25(3), 481-497. http://users.polisci.umn.edu/~dsamuels/Samuels%20LSQ%202000.pdf
Santos, André Marenco dos. (2006). Comparing Houses of Representatives: Parliamentary Recruitment in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Teoria & Sociedade, 11(2), 42-69. http://socialsciences.scielo.org/pdf/s_tsoc/v2nse/scs_a04.pdf
Schwindt-Bayer, Leslie A. (2005). The Incumbency Disadvantage and Women’s Election to Legislative Office. Electoral Studies, 24(2), 227-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2004.05.001
Senado. República de Chile (2020). Diario de Sesiones del Senado. Sesión 29a. https://www.senado.cl/appsenado/index.php?mo=sesionessala&ac=getDocumento&teseid=64528&legiid=491
Shabad, Goldie, y Slomczynski, Kazimierz M. (2002). The Emergence of Career Politicians in Post-Communist Democracies: Poland and the Czech Republic. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 27(3), 333-59. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068804040498
Shin, Kwang S., y Jackson III, John S. (1979). Membership Turnover in US State Legislatures: 1931–1976. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 4(1), 95-104.
Siavelis, Peter M. (2005). Los peligros de la ingeniería electoral (y de predecir sus efectos). Política. Revista de Ciencia Política, (45), 9-28. https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=64504501
Solano de Martínez, Luisa María. (2021). República Dominicana: elecciones generales 2020 (presidencia, vicepresidencia, senadurías y diputaciones). Análisis de las Elecciones 2020. Observatorio de Reformas Políticas en América Latina; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Organización de los Estados Americanos.
Strickland, James M., y Crosson, Jesse M. (2023). K Street on Main: Legislative Turnover and Multi-Client Lobbying. Political Science Research and Methods, 11(4), 746-762. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.7
Taggart, Paul. (2019). Populism in Western Europe, en Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal, Taggart, Paul, Ochoa Espejo, Paulina y Ostiguy, Pierre (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Populism. Oxford University Press, 248-263. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803560.013.34
Uppal, Yogesh, y Glazer, Amihai. (2015). Legislative turnover, fiscal policy, and economic growth: Evidence from US State Legislatures. Economic Inquiry, 53(1), 91-107. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12118
Uriegas, Fernanda. (2019, junio 30). How a Journalist Helped Spark an Anti-Corruption Wave in Panama. America’s Quarterly. https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/how-a-journalist-helped-spark-an-anti-corruption-wave-in-panama/
Valencia Escamilla, Laura. (2022). Representación y reelección legislativa México: la elección federal de 2021. Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (32), 97-114. https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2022.32.79992
Verzichelli, Luca. (2019). Degradable Elites? Modes and Factors of Parliamentary Turnover in Europe in the Early Twenty-first Century. En Lars Vogel, Ronald Gebauer, y Axel Salheiser (Eds.), The Contested Status of Political Elites: At the Crossroads. Routledge, 87-107. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315211916
Wills-Otero, Laura. (2009). Electoral systems in latin america: Explaining the adoption of proportional representation systems during the twentieth Century. Latin American Politics and Society, 51(3), 33-58. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2009.00055.x
Willumsen, David M., y Goetz, Klaus H. (2015). Staggered political institutions: design and effects. Journal of European Public Policy, 22(7), 1040-1051. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2015.1036905
Wirls, Daniel. (2015). Staggered terms for the US Senate: Origins and irony. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 40(3), 471-497. https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12084









