Determinantes del voto por el gobierno: desempeño gubernamental, percepción económica y satisfacción democrática, México 2006-2018
El estudio analiza cómo la percepción del electorado sobre el desempeño gubernamental, la satisfacción con la democracia y la situación económica impactan la propensión a votar por el partido gobernante. Se utilizó la información del proyecto Comparative National Elections Project de la Universidad de Ohio, para las elecciones en México de los años 2006, 2012 y 2018, desarrollando modelos de regresión logística para calcular el efecto de estas variables. Los hallazgos revelan que la satisfacción con la democracia no presenta efectos estadísticamente significativos sobre el voto oficialista. En contraste, la percepción económica muestra un efecto robusto: quienes evalúan que la economía ha mejorado tienen mayor probabilidad de votar por el gobierno. Por último, el desempeño gubernamental también constituye un predictor relevante, donde tanto las evaluaciones positivas como las neutrales incrementan significativamente el apoyo al incumbent.
Detalles del artículo
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